Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 07 2021 | 11046 | 48667 | 356 | 105 | 73 | 123 |
| March 08 2021 | 11046 | 48682 | 356 | 105 | 63 | 112 |
| March 09 2021 | 11056 | 48724 | 358 | 105 | 58 | 118 |
| March 10 2021 | 11074 | 48774 | 362 | 105 | 69 | 117 |
| March 11 2021 | 11084 | 48876 | 362 | 105 | 79 | 111 |
| March 12 2021 | 11084 | 48928 | 364 | 106 | 70 | 101 |
| March 13 2021 | 11086 | 49007 | 363 | 106 | 57 | 88 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.4 | 11.3% | 6 | 0.05% | 9 | 0.08% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 0.7 | 13.2% | 7 | 0.05% | 12 | 0.09% |
| 20-29 | -3 | 1.4 | 17% | 9 | 0.04% | 14 | 0.07% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 0.7 | 3.8% | 2 | 0.01% | 5 | 0.04% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 1.1 | 18.9% | 10 | 0.1% | 12 | 0.11% |
| 50-59 | -1 | 0.4 | 15.1% | 8 | 0.06% | 13 | 0.1% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.1 | 1.9% | 1 | 0.01% | 4 | 0.03% |
| 70+ | 2 | 1.3 | 18.9% | 10 | 0.1% | 15 | 0.14% |
| All ages | 2 | 6.3 | 100% | 53 | 0.05% | 84 | 0.08% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 07 2021 | 7080 | 28656 | 225 | 93 | 59 | 71 |
| March 08 2021 | 7082 | 28663 | 225 | 93 | 53 | 73 |
| March 09 2021 | 7087 | 28677 | 226 | 93 | 48 | 74 |
| March 10 2021 | 7093 | 28698 | 226 | 93 | 50 | 80 |
| March 11 2021 | 7101 | 28742 | 226 | 93 | 57 | 80 |
| March 12 2021 | 7110 | 28782 | 226 | 93 | 58 | 81 |
| March 13 2021 | 7114 | 28831 | 226 | 93 | 57 | 75 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.4 | 5.3% | 3 | 0.04% | 4 | 0.05% |
| 10-19 | 2 | 0.9 | 10.5% | 6 | 0.07% | 7 | 0.08% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 0.4 | 8.8% | 5 | 0.07% | 8 | 0.11% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 0.7 | 12.3% | 7 | 0.08% | 8 | 0.1% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 1.1 | 15.8% | 9 | 0.12% | 10 | 0.13% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 0.4 | 14% | 8 | 0.08% | 13 | 0.13% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 0.6 | 10.5% | 6 | 0.07% | 9 | 0.11% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.7 | 22.8% | 13 | 0.18% | 16 | 0.22% |
| All ages | 4 | 5.3 | 100% | 57 | 0.09% | 75 | 0.12% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 07 2021 | 5426 | 18882 | 238 | 76 | 99 | 127 |
| March 08 2021 | 5430 | 18894 | 238 | 76 | 94 | 125 |
| March 09 2021 | 5436 | 18893 | 239 | 76 | 83 | 127 |
| March 10 2021 | 5446 | 18943 | 239 | 76 | 84 | 125 |
| March 11 2021 | 5450 | 18972 | 239 | 76 | 83 | 123 |
| March 12 2021 | 5455 | 18993 | 239 | 76 | 86 | 119 |
| March 13 2021 | 5460 | 19008 | 240 | 76 | 67 | 107 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 0.4 | 3% | 2 | 0.04% | 4 | 0.07% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 0.6 | 9% | 6 | 0.11% | 12 | 0.22% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 0.3 | 7.5% | 5 | 0.11% | 10 | 0.22% |
| 30-39 | 2 | 0.9 | 23.9% | 16 | 0.29% | 20 | 0.37% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 1.4 | 14.9% | 10 | 0.2% | 16 | 0.32% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 0.9 | 20.9% | 14 | 0.21% | 25 | 0.37% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.7 | 11.9% | 8 | 0.13% | 12 | 0.19% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.4 | 9% | 6 | 0.09% | 8 | 0.13% |
| All ages | 5 | 5.6 | 100% | 67 | 0.15% | 107 | 0.24% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 07 2021 | 12291 | 53464 | 372 | 80 | 112 | 155 |
| March 08 2021 | 12291 | 53525 | 372 | 80 | 90 | 149 |
| March 09 2021 | 12306 | 53558 | 375 | 80 | 72 | 139 |
| March 10 2021 | 12262 | 53683 | 375 | 80 | 53 | 121 |
| March 11 2021 | 12278 | 53755 | 375 | 80 | 67 | 129 |
| March 12 2021 | 12284 | 53837 | 377 | 80 | 59 | 113 |
| March 13 2021 | 12289 | 53934 | 376 | 80 | 42 | 99 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.1 | 28.6% | 6 | 0.05% | 11 | 0.09% |
| 10-19 | 0 | -0.1 | -33.3% | -7 | -0.04% | 4 | 0.02% |
| 20-29 | 2 | 0.0 | 19% | 4 | 0.02% | 16 | 0.08% |
| 30-39 | 1 | -0.3 | 4.8% | 1 | 0.01% | 5 | 0.04% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 0.9 | 47.6% | 10 | 0.07% | 17 | 0.13% |
| 50-59 | 2 | -0.4 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 7 | 0.05% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 0.1 | 23.8% | 5 | 0.04% | 14 | 0.1% |
| 70+ | -2 | 0.0 | 9.5% | 2 | 0.02% | 4 | 0.03% |
| All ages | 5 | 0.3 | 100% | 21 | 0.02% | 78 | 0.07% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 07 2021 | 40944 | 323893 | 1253 | 278 | 753 | 998 |
| March 08 2021 | 40973 | 324141 | 1256 | 278 | 708 | 972 |
| March 09 2021 | 41002 | 324338 | 1260 | 278 | 574 | 961 |
| March 10 2021 | 41048 | 324683 | 1262 | 279 | 531 | 925 |
| March 11 2021 | 41136 | 325086 | 1262 | 280 | 565 | 945 |
| March 12 2021 | 41207 | 325343 | 1270 | 280 | 630 | 942 |
| March 13 2021 | 41262 | 325801 | 1273 | 280 | 621 | 834 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 2.6 | 4.7% | 29 | 0.05% | 37 | 0.06% |
| 10-19 | 10 | 9.0 | 17.7% | 110 | 0.15% | 161 | 0.23% |
| 20-29 | 15 | 14.1 | 27.2% | 169 | 0.16% | 247 | 0.24% |
| 30-39 | 10 | 8.7 | 16.3% | 101 | 0.13% | 122 | 0.16% |
| 40-49 | 7 | 6.9 | 12.9% | 80 | 0.12% | 106 | 0.16% |
| 50-59 | 5 | 6.6 | 11.8% | 73 | 0.11% | 91 | 0.14% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 3.1 | 6.6% | 41 | 0.07% | 49 | 0.09% |
| 70+ | 1 | 1.4 | 2.9% | 18 | 0.04% | 21 | 0.04% |
| All ages | 55 | 52.4 | 100% | 621 | 0.11% | 834 | 0.15% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 07 2021 | 566693 | 2647864 | 26457 | 6481 | 4542 | 7118 |
| March 08 2021 | 566871 | 2649740 | 26484 | 6481 | 4064 | 6873 |
| March 09 2021 | 567334 | 2650773 | 26554 | 6510 | 3838 | 6770 |
| March 10 2021 | 567850 | 2654958 | 26630 | 6524 | 3890 | 6539 |
| March 11 2021 | 568352 | 2658651 | 26670 | 6524 | 4084 | 6201 |
| March 12 2021 | 568902 | 2661456 | 26714 | 6525 | 4310 | 6095 |
| March 13 2021 | 569364 | 2666006 | 26774 | 6538 | 4233 | 5868 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 32 | 29.9 | 7.4% | 312 | 0.05% | 431 | 0.07% |
| 10-19 | 63 | 65.6 | 16.4% | 695 | 0.09% | 947 | 0.13% |
| 20-29 | 77 | 72.6 | 16.9% | 716 | 0.09% | 989 | 0.13% |
| 30-39 | 88 | 66.9 | 14.6% | 617 | 0.08% | 848 | 0.11% |
| 40-49 | 67 | 64.1 | 15.2% | 645 | 0.09% | 854 | 0.12% |
| 50-59 | 79 | 63.3 | 14.6% | 620 | 0.08% | 893 | 0.11% |
| 60-69 | 29 | 42.4 | 10.1% | 426 | 0.06% | 603 | 0.08% |
| 70+ | 27 | 23.9 | 4.8% | 202 | 0.03% | 303 | 0.05% |
| All ages | 462 | 428.6 | 100% | 4233 | 0.07% | 5868 | 0.1% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 10.9 | 9.9% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11.6 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 16.1% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23.6 | 5.6 | 8.6 | 21.2% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.6 | 2.4 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 14.6 | 0.4% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.3 | 22.7 | 23.8 | 52.4 | 76.6 | 13.5% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.1 | 12.5 | 13.1 | 428.6 | 575.4 | 12.2% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.1 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.65 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-04-04 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 5633"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges