Daily

Column

Important dates:

  • (purple dashed lines) Aug 31, Sept 14, Sept 28 and Jan 31, Feb 14, Feb 28: Return to campus/school, +2 weeks, +4 weeks

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

Column

Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.

  • First plot is conservative (10-day total) estimate
  • Second plot is 14-day total used in MN Safe-Learning plan

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

By the Numbers

Column

Definitions

Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table

Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
March 07 2021 11046 48667 356 105 73 123
March 08 2021 11046 48682 356 105 63 112
March 09 2021 11056 48724 358 105 58 118
March 10 2021 11074 48774 362 105 69 117
March 11 2021 11084 48876 362 105 79 111
March 12 2021 11084 48928 364 106 70 101
March 13 2021 11086 49007 363 106 57 88
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 0.4 11.3% 6 0.05% 9 0.08%
10-19 1 0.7 13.2% 7 0.05% 12 0.09%
20-29 -3 1.4 17% 9 0.04% 14 0.07%
30-39 3 0.7 3.8% 2 0.01% 5 0.04%
40-49 0 1.1 18.9% 10 0.1% 12 0.11%
50-59 -1 0.4 15.1% 8 0.06% 13 0.1%
60-69 0 0.1 1.9% 1 0.01% 4 0.03%
70+ 2 1.3 18.9% 10 0.1% 15 0.14%
All ages 2 6.3 100% 53 0.05% 84 0.08%

Chippewa

Chippewa cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
March 07 2021 7080 28656 225 93 59 71
March 08 2021 7082 28663 225 93 53 73
March 09 2021 7087 28677 226 93 48 74
March 10 2021 7093 28698 226 93 50 80
March 11 2021 7101 28742 226 93 57 80
March 12 2021 7110 28782 226 93 58 81
March 13 2021 7114 28831 226 93 57 75
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 0.4 5.3% 3 0.04% 4 0.05%
10-19 2 0.9 10.5% 6 0.07% 7 0.08%
20-29 0 0.4 8.8% 5 0.07% 8 0.11%
30-39 0 0.7 12.3% 7 0.08% 8 0.1%
40-49 1 1.1 15.8% 9 0.12% 10 0.13%
50-59 0 0.4 14% 8 0.08% 13 0.13%
60-69 1 0.6 10.5% 6 0.07% 9 0.11%
70+ 0 0.7 22.8% 13 0.18% 16 0.22%
All ages 4 5.3 100% 57 0.09% 75 0.12%

Barron

Barron cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
March 07 2021 5426 18882 238 76 99 127
March 08 2021 5430 18894 238 76 94 125
March 09 2021 5436 18893 239 76 83 127
March 10 2021 5446 18943 239 76 84 125
March 11 2021 5450 18972 239 76 83 123
March 12 2021 5455 18993 239 76 86 119
March 13 2021 5460 19008 240 76 67 107
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 1 0.4 3% 2 0.04% 4 0.07%
10-19 0 0.6 9% 6 0.11% 12 0.22%
20-29 1 0.3 7.5% 5 0.11% 10 0.22%
30-39 2 0.9 23.9% 16 0.29% 20 0.37%
40-49 1 1.4 14.9% 10 0.2% 16 0.32%
50-59 0 0.9 20.9% 14 0.21% 25 0.37%
60-69 0 0.7 11.9% 8 0.13% 12 0.19%
70+ 0 0.4 9% 6 0.09% 8 0.13%
All ages 5 5.6 100% 67 0.15% 107 0.24%

La Crosse

La Crosse cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
March 07 2021 12291 53464 372 80 112 155
March 08 2021 12291 53525 372 80 90 149
March 09 2021 12306 53558 375 80 72 139
March 10 2021 12262 53683 375 80 53 121
March 11 2021 12278 53755 375 80 67 129
March 12 2021 12284 53837 377 80 59 113
March 13 2021 12289 53934 376 80 42 99
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 0 0.1 28.6% 6 0.05% 11 0.09%
10-19 0 -0.1 -33.3% -7 -0.04% 4 0.02%
20-29 2 0.0 19% 4 0.02% 16 0.08%
30-39 1 -0.3 4.8% 1 0.01% 5 0.04%
40-49 1 0.9 47.6% 10 0.07% 17 0.13%
50-59 2 -0.4 0% 0 0% 7 0.05%
60-69 1 0.1 23.8% 5 0.04% 14 0.1%
70+ -2 0.0 9.5% 2 0.02% 4 0.03%
All ages 5 0.3 100% 21 0.02% 78 0.07%

Dane

Dane cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
March 07 2021 40944 323893 1253 278 753 998
March 08 2021 40973 324141 1256 278 708 972
March 09 2021 41002 324338 1260 278 574 961
March 10 2021 41048 324683 1262 279 531 925
March 11 2021 41136 325086 1262 280 565 945
March 12 2021 41207 325343 1270 280 630 942
March 13 2021 41262 325801 1273 280 621 834
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 2 2.6 4.7% 29 0.05% 37 0.06%
10-19 10 9.0 17.7% 110 0.15% 161 0.23%
20-29 15 14.1 27.2% 169 0.16% 247 0.24%
30-39 10 8.7 16.3% 101 0.13% 122 0.16%
40-49 7 6.9 12.9% 80 0.12% 106 0.16%
50-59 5 6.6 11.8% 73 0.11% 91 0.14%
60-69 5 3.1 6.6% 41 0.07% 49 0.09%
70+ 1 1.4 2.9% 18 0.04% 21 0.04%
All ages 55 52.4 100% 621 0.11% 834 0.15%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
March 07 2021 566693 2647864 26457 6481 4542 7118
March 08 2021 566871 2649740 26484 6481 4064 6873
March 09 2021 567334 2650773 26554 6510 3838 6770
March 10 2021 567850 2654958 26630 6524 3890 6539
March 11 2021 568352 2658651 26670 6524 4084 6201
March 12 2021 568902 2661456 26714 6525 4310 6095
March 13 2021 569364 2666006 26774 6538 4233 5868
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 32 29.9 7.4% 312 0.05% 431 0.07%
10-19 63 65.6 16.4% 695 0.09% 947 0.13%
20-29 77 72.6 16.9% 716 0.09% 989 0.13%
30-39 88 66.9 14.6% 617 0.08% 848 0.11%
40-49 67 64.1 15.2% 645 0.09% 854 0.12%
50-59 79 63.3 14.6% 620 0.08% 893 0.11%
60-69 29 42.4 10.1% 426 0.06% 603 0.08%
70+ 27 23.9 4.8% 202 0.03% 303 0.05%
All ages 462 428.6 100% 4233 0.07% 5868 0.1%

Column

Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.

Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):

  • 2wk: Two-week case total (most recent 14 days), rate per 10K of county population
  • 2wk10s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 10-19 population
  • 2wk20s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 20-29 population; since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s
  • daily7: Daily new-case running average (average over 7 days)
  • posratedaily7 (as a percent): Daily positive-test rate, running average (average over 7 days)

and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:

Criteria 2wk Criteria 2wk20s Criteria daily7 Suggestion
> 25 > 30 urge extra caution
> 28 > 45* decreasing consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH
> 28 > 45* steady to increasing strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH.
> 30 > 50 decreasing ’’ ’’ ’’
> 30 > 50 steady to increasing based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable

*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.

Eau Claire

Eau Claire 2wk Eau Claire 2wk10s Eau Claire 2wk20s Eau Claire current daily7 Eau Claire past daily7 Eau Claire posratedaily7
8 8.8 6.7 6.3 10.9 9.9%

Important Resources:

Chippewa

Chippewa 2wk Chippewa current daily7 Chippewa past daily7 Chippewa posratedaily7
11.6 5.3 5.6 16.1%

Barron

Barron 2wk Barron current daily7 Barron past daily7 Barron posratedaily7
23.6 5.6 8.6 21.2%

La Crosse

La Crosse 2wk La Crosse 2wk10s La Crosse 2wk20s La Crosse current daily7 La Crosse past daily7 La Crosse posratedaily7
6.6 2.4 7.5 4.6 14.6 0.4%

Dane

Dane 2wk Dane 2wk10s Dane 2wk20s Dane current daily7 Dane past daily7 Dane posratedaily7
15.3 22.7 23.8 52.4 76.6 13.5%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 2wk Wisconsin 2wk10s Wisconsin 2wk20s Wisconsin current daily7 Wisconsin past daily7 Wisconsin posratedaily7
10.1 12.5 13.1 428.6 575.4 12.2%

Important Resources:

Cumulative

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Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

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Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

References

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Reliable Updated Visuals

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Modeling

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Predicting cumulative deaths in state

  • WI correpondence between Cumulative cases and deaths (at time lag)
    • Starting with late May, after daily tests regularly above 6000
[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.1 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.65 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-04-04 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 5633"

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Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges

  • Portage county (Stevens Point): gray
  • Eau Claire county (Eau Claire): blue
  • Dane county (Madison): green
  • La Crosse county (La Crosse): red